JSA Migration Labour Market Indicator Model Methodology

The Migration Strategy establishes a formal role for Jobs and Skills Australia (JSA) in defining Australia’s skills needs using labour market evidence and advice from tripartite mechanisms. Specifically, the Migration Strategy notes that JSA will:

• Monitor the labour market impacts of the Specialist Skills Pathway for the Skills in Demand (SID) visa which will replace the Temporary Skills Shortage (TSS) visa program.
• Provide labour market advice on the Core Skills Occupations List (CSOL) for the Core Skills Pathway of the SID visa. The Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs is the decision maker on the composition of the CSOL.
• Provide labour market advice to inform the Essential Skills Pathway of the SID visa.
   

JSA has developed a new Migration Labour Market Indicator Model1 (the JSA Migration Model) which informed the draft CSOL released for consultation on 20 March 2024. The JSA Model was developed to:

• Provide advice on the CSOL for the Core Skills Pathway of the SID visa.
• Target temporary and permanent skilled migration to the current, longer-term and emerging skill needs of the Australian labour market, taking into consideration the contribution of vocational education and training (VET) and higher education to labour supply.
   

The JSA Migration Model builds on the Skills Priority List (SPL) ratings by analysing labour market indicators and datasets that are directly relevant to Australia’s skill visa programs, including:

• Domestic indicators and datasets:
  • Skill Priority List (SPL) Skill Shortage and Future Demand Rating—JSA analysis.
  • Employment Growth Projections—JSA Occupation Projections.
  • Domestic Entry Employment Outcomes—Graduate Careers Australia: Graduate Outcomes Data and Field of Education Occupation Destination data.
  • Reliance on Primary Temporary Skill TSS Visa Holders—ABS Census, Department of Employment Occupation Trend Data, Department of Home Affairs’ administrative (visa) data.
     
• Migration indicators and datasets:
  • Primary Skill Stream Migrant Employment Outcomes—Department of Home Affairs’ Continuous Survey of Australia’s Migrants (CSAM).
  • Permanent and Temporary Primary Visa Labour Supply (Off-Shore)—Department of Home Affairs administrative data.
  • Primary Skilled Migrant and Temporary Skill Visa Earnings—Department of Home Affairs administrative data, ABS Employee Earnings and Hours Survey; CSAM.
  • Primary Skill Stream Migrant Unemployment—CSAM.

The JSA Migration Model also includes the following supplementary labour market indicators and datasets (to provide additional labour market intelligence):

• Full Time Employment Incidence—ABS Labour Force Estimates customised tables.
• Low visa grants—Department of Home Affairs administrative data.
• Primary Skill Stream Migrant Age—Department of Home Affairs administrative data.
• Workplace Risk—Safe Work Australia claims data and Fair Work Ombudsman data.
• Skills Match—ABS Survey of Education and Work.
• Internet Vacancies—JSA Internet Vacancy Index.
   

Once the datasets are incorporated into the JSA Migration Model, a points system is applied to each indicator, with an aggregate score generated for each occupation:

• This analysis is undertaken for ANZSCO Skill Level 1 to 3 occupations.
• There are a small number of occupations excluded from the JSA Migration Model (regardless of labour market analysis) as Australian citizenship is a pre-requisite for appointment, engagement or employment under the Australian Constitution; federal, state and territory laws; or to reflect other decisions of Government (e.g. for national security reasons).

The JSA Migration Model labour market indicator model uses a points system to generate advice on the draft CSOL where:

• Each indicator is assigned between 0 and 2 points.
• The Model is split into two main data groups: Domestic indicators and Migration indicators. Each group is weighted equally (50 per cent) in calculating the final scores for each occupation.
• Occupations meeting a benchmark are identified for inclusion on the CSOL. This benchmark is set at a level assessed to be a reliable indicator2 and where most of the indicators support inclusion

For occupations where there is insufficient data in the standard JSA Migration Model, supplementary data sources are analysed:

• Most in-scope occupations (approximately 80 per cent) have sufficient data for the primary JSA Migration Model.
• Approximately 15 per cent of skilled occupations require analysis of supplementary data sources in the JSA Migration Model, and some five (5) per cent of occupations cannot be accurately assessed through available data.

JSA is committed to the ongoing refinement of the JSA Migration Model to support the implementation of the Migration Strategy. This includes analysis and incorporation of new labour market datasets and the outcomes of other JSA modelling projects (e.g. projections on the contribution to workforce supply from the higher education and vocational education and training sectors).