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Jobs and Skills Australia’s (JSA) employment projections are useful for understanding the impact of the current economic and labour market outlook on Australia’s future workforce needs. The projections give insights into trends and growth areas in the labour market and are used by industry and governments to inform policy decisions and workforce planning activities.
JSA has commissioned Victoria University (VU) to produce employment projections to May 2034, using the Victoria University Employment Forecasting (VUEF) model. See the Victoria University Employment Forecasts Methodology, working paper, 2017 edition for more information.
The employment projections have been calibrated to the macroeconomic and labour market outlook provided by the Australian Treasury and are available by industry, occupation and state/territory.
Key findings
Total employment in Australia is projected to grow by around 950,000 people (or 6.6%) over the next 5 years, and by nearly 2.0 million people (or 13.7%) over the next 10 years, reaching 16.3 million employed people by May 2034.
The structural shift in Australian employment towards services industries is projected to continue with 3 industries, i.e. Health Care and Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; and Education and Training, contributing to over half (50.4%) of the employment growth over the next decade.
Figure 1: Projected employment growth by industry (5 and 10 years), Persons, Australia
All major occupation groups are projected to increase in employment over the next decade with the largest growth among Professionals (projected to grow by 409,800 persons or 10.9% to May 2029 and by 785,000 persons or 20.9% to May 2034).
Figure 2: Projected employment growth by major occupation (5 and 10 years), Persons, Australia
Over 90% of the employment growth over the next decade is projected for occupations commensurate with post-secondary qualifications – with 51.0% of the projected growth being in occupations related to a bachelor degree or higher and 42.6% in occupations related to VET as the primary pathway.
Figure 3: Projected employment growth by occupation skill level (5 and 10 years), Persons, Australia
Employment is projected to increase in all states and territories over the ten years to May 2034. The largest increase in level of employment is projected for Victoria (627,700 persons or 16.9%), followed by New South Wales (523,300 persons or 11.7%), Queensland (395,100 persons or 13.5%).
Table 1: Projected Employment Growth by State and Territory (5 and 10 years), Persons
| Employment May 2024 (‘000) |
Employment May 2029 (‘000) |
5-Yr Change (‘000) | 5-Yr Change (%) | Employment May 2034 (‘000) |
10-Yr Change (‘000) | 10-Yr Change (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 4,473.5 | 4,709.6 | 236.1 | 5.3% | 4,996.7 | 523.3 | 11.7% |
| VIC | 3,724.8 | 4,040.4 | 315.6 | 8.5% | 4,352.5 | 627.7 | 16.9% |
| QLD | 2,929.2 | 3,129.7 | 200.5 | 6.8% | 3,324.3 | 395.1 | 13.5% |
| SA | 945.0 | 979.9 | 34.9 | 3.7% | 1,035.1 | 90.1 | 9.5% |
| WA | 1,600.3 | 1,711.5 | 111.3 | 7.0% | 1,826.9 | 226.6 | 14.2% |
| TAS | 285.9 | 300.6 | 14.6 | 5.1% | 317.4 | 31.4 | 11.0% |
| NT | 136.1 | 145.8 | 9.7 | 7.1% | 155.5 | 19.4 | 14.2% |
| ACT | 268.5 | 293.2 | 24.7 | 9.2% | 317.1 | 48.6 | 18.1% |
| Australia | 14,363.3 | 15,310.7 | 947.4 | 6.6% | 16,325.5 | 1,962.2 | 13.7% |
Detailed data including the scope and caveats are available to download.
Downloads
Employment Projections - May 2024 to May 2034.xlsx
employment_projections_-_may_2024_to_may_2034.xlsx290784
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